Men’s World and National Yearly Marathon Best-Time Trends

Based on a six-year average.

tions or groups of nations and by various races. Currently the event is

overwhelmingly dominated by East Africans, primarily Kenyans. The following study attempts to identify trends by attaching concrete numbers and graphical analysis to the men’s marathon from 1980 onward.

The graph on page 77 charts the averaged-out fastest times run each year (the yearly world best) for the men’s marathon from 1980 to 2008. This is best defined by the thick, solid black-line plot near the top of the graph. The black line represents a six-year world-best average. For example, the six-year world-best average time for the six years leading up to and including 2007 is:

(i the years, the men’s marathon has been dominated by various na1 2 3 4 5 6 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2:04:26 + 2:05:56 + 2:06:19 + 2:06:16 + 2:04:55 + 2:05:37 = 12:33:29/6 World-best six-year average for 2007 = 2:05:35

Each actual yearly world best corresponds to a black dot on the graph that is linked simply by a thin black line. The thick black line is generated by averaging the dots as per the equation above. A six-year average is taken because that is suitable for a trend to be seen. If only the world-best time were used, the black line would be somewhat haphazard, as the thin black line connecting the black dots shows. If too many years are used, the plot is overly smoothed and trends become somewhat

MARATHON TIME 6-YEAR AVERAGE

world nth bests

200th – – – –

world best —e— no average

USA & Canada Europe Orient

Australia & NZ Britain & Ireland

Benelux USSR Scandinavia Africa

So. & Latin America Iberia

Yearly World Marathon Best Times Using 6-Year Average—Men

World = Africa

Europe Orient

USSR Iberia

So. & L America

Benelux USA & Canada

Australia _ & NZ

Britain & Ireland

a Scandinavia

2008 DATE

lost and are also somewhat unresponsive. That is, it takes too long for the plot to respond to what is happening. A six-year average incorporates a few years of lag, were there to be sudden changes in performance. For our purposes, six years is suitable to reveal the greater picture, which is what we are looking for.

The world best (six-year average) shows a steady rise from 1980. We use 1980 as the starting point because that coincides with a major milestone for the marathon, a boom, where popularity soared and performance significantly rose. Using a six-year average means that figures back to 1975 are included.

By the end of the 1980s, the fastest times run in the world year in and year out were not quite as good as earlier in that decade. It was not until the middle of the 1990s that the trend for consistently faster world-best times picked up again. So there was a boom, a plateau, and then a slight decline. By 1998, the solid black line of the world-best times recovered to its previous 1989 high. The trend to run even faster times continued into the 2000s with a small peak in 2003. This coincides with Paul Tergat’s 2003 marathon world record of 2:04:55. The increase in speed appeared to have leveled off, but in 2007 and 2008, it has been increasing. This is owing to Haile Gebrselassie. His world record of 2:04:26 in 2007 and 2:03:59 in 2008 is maintaining the upward trend, the world-best six-year average currently 2:05:18.5.

Where the world-best black dots are higher than the six-year average, there are conditions for the average to improve. Where the average is higher than the black dots, a fall in the average is to be expected. The last four black dots (2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008) plotted are due to just one man: Haile Gebrselassie. Without Haile, the trend for faster times would have stalled. This suggests that the world best (six-year average) is experiencing a false high and that a crash may well happen if Sir Haile does not keep running super times. However, a crash is very unlikely, since the next line on the graph we discuss does not suggest this.

Look at the dashed black line, which represents the 10th-fastest world-best (six-year average) time. In other words, the data for the yearly value used is the marathon runner who posted the 10th-fastest time for any given year averaged out for six years. The nth plots are, for example, the 10th- and 25th-best male finisher for the year in the position that the number indicates, averaged out for six years. The larger the n, the more consistent the year-to-year average is, because a larger data sample is being taken. Also the larger the n, the more the underlying trend is being identified as if reading an ocean current, the tips of the waves being the initial nth—the Ist is the world-best average, and the depths would be the 200th.

The 10th-fastest world-best (six-year average) time mimics the world-best (sixyear average) time, albeit about 1 minute, 45 seconds slower. The decline in the 1990s is not so pronounced. This is because the top 10 runners create consistency compared with just the fastest single runner. The 10th-world-best time has been

rising in the last two years, but not as much as the world-best line. This suggests that Haile does not have very close competition in his league. Look at the actual times by which he has beaten his rivals: 43 seconds in 2005; 41 seconds in 2006; 2 minutes, 2 seconds in 2007; 76 seconds in 2008; and he also has the secondfastest time in 2008. If Haile has peaked, the 10th-fastest world-best time-trend gradient suggests that the best of the rest will catch up slowly and steadily in about 10 years’ time.

The next black-dotted based line is the 25th world best (six-year average). The 25th-fastest runner is approximately 2 minutes, 45 seconds behind the fastest and a minute behind the 10th‘fastest. The 25th-world-best line is predictably smoother than the 10th. This continues with the 50th, 100th, and especially the 200th world-best times. Their lines are very stable compared with the world-best plot. Really, there was merely a plateau in the early 1990s, rather than a fall. The trend for faster times is not confined to the top dozen runners, since further down the field the times are also improving. So there is a good strength in depth of field. In other words, the best are being backed up by many elite runners, which bodes well for continuing the trend to faster times. The 50th-best runner in the world is roughly 3 minutes, 40 seconds behind the fastest man. This is around five minutes for the 100th man and about 6 minutes, 30 seconds for the 200th fastest.

This year, a marathon time very close to 2:11:30 is required to make the top 200. That equates to the 10th average fastest (six-year average) in 1982. The 2:09:45 world best (six-year average) in 1980 reflects the 70th-best average today. So, effectively, there are 70 Bill Rodgers (a late-1970s, early-1980s top marathoner) today! If the trend for improvement continues at the steady rate of the last dozen years, there would be at least 10 Hailes in 10 years’ time! What a marathon feast! One of these could be the ultimate Haile, likely to set the world record around 2:02.30.

ES Eo * The original marathon running boom (in the 1980s) was led by the West. The second burst 10 years later was spearheaded by Africa, with the Orient and Brazil helping out, too. The following section looks at the mechanics of this and puts names behind the nationalities.

The colored lines on the graph on page 77 refer to a selection of continents and nationalities. The continental and national best times are also “trended” using the six-year-average technique. It is prudent to note that, for example, the time of an American runner who is of Kenyan ancestry is included in the African statistics. This gives accuracy in terms of race. Thus we are able to see whether any particular race appears to be more naturally suited to the marathon. After all, humans come in many different shapes and sizes, so we ought to expect performance differences. Those with mixed-race parentage are included where they live. Another technicality addressed is the adjusting of marathon times where the course is an incorrect distance, be it certified or otherwise. The database used (created from other databases) to compile the graph accounts for this and various other issues that are not worth explaining here; suffice it to say that every effort has been made to ensure the data are accurate.

The highest colored line in 1980 is that of the USA and Canada. The United States led the way, starting the great marathon boom in the mid- to late 1970s. The best times by Americans compared favorably with the world’s best, with or without Alberto Salazar, who is arguably of Latin American origin (in that he was born in Cuba). Alberto was in the U.S. sub-2:10 nucleus, which included Bill Rodgers, Dick Beardsley, Ron Tabb, Benji Durden, and Greg Meyer, who were the best from a huge pool of talent, superseding 1970s legend Frank Shorter, a 2:10:30 man.

By the early to mid-1980s, the other two major marathon Caucasian conglomerates, that of Europe (led by the British Isles) and Australia/New Zealand, took the glory. Steve Jones from Wales and Robert de Castella from Australia were the fastest, backed up by many other sub-2:10 men, the bulk from England. Ron Hill and Ian Thompson were the English legends from the 1970s; Hugh Jones, Geoff Smith, Mike Gratton, and Charlie Spedding, also from England, had major impact; the Scottish duo of John Graham and Allister Hutton excelled; and John Treacy held and still holds the Irish record. Rod Dixon of New Zealand was also a sub-2:10 man.

Like the United States, the British Isles and Australia/New Zealand faltered. Their lines also dropped, but that was five years after the United States in the late 1980s, by which time the U.S. marathon was deep in recession. These “big three” Western-type regions appear to have the same trend. They all show a steady decline in the early 1990s and bottom out in the mid-1990s. There were only a few sub-2:10 runners: Ken Martin and Bob Kempainen, both USA; Paul Evans, England (Tony Milovsorov of England included in the Balkan block); and Patrick Carroll with Steve Moneghetti, Australia, the latter’s contribution most significant. There were signs of a big three comeback in the late 1990s/early 2000s with Dave Morris, Gerry Lawson, and Alan Culpepper, all of the USA; Jon Brown, Wales; Mark Steinle, England; and Lee Troop, Australia; all sub-2:10 men. By 2003, it was clear that the big three were in the doldrums, as if the West had lost its appetite for the marathon.

There are two men left in the big three who have run under 2:10. Derek Clayton of Australia is the granddaddy. He was the first man to break 2:10, and that was in 1967! (His assumed world record of 2:08:33 in 1968 was run on a course 500m short and rounds up to just over 2:10.) The other is arguably his modern-day equivalent: Ryan Hall, who is the fastest man in the entire West. In 2008, the big three hover around 150th, averaged out yearly for world best. That implies that the best U.S. runner would manage only about 2:11:35, slower than the 1980s high. Yet the best marathon time by a U.S.-born and -bred runner was smashed by Ryan Hall in 2008 at 2:06:17. He appears to go against the trend and will really improve the plot of the U.S. Currently, the British Isles and Australia/ New Zealand do not have such a great talent. Ryan Hall aside, there is very little elite marathon running depth in any of the big three (Americans or Brits of African ancestry aside). In 2007, there were only four times run under 2:20 by British/ Trish athletes. This compares with about 100 per year in the early to mid-1980s! In fact, in 2003 Paula Radcliffe’s women’s world record of 2:15:25 was the fastest time by a Brit of either sex for that year! In America, the actual 10th-fastest (not averaged) U.S./Canadian time was 2:16:14 and 25th circa 2:18:00. In the early 1990s, the 10th-fastest time improved to around 2:14; it was 2:12:09 in 1986, and the 25th in 1986 was 2:14:25. The glory year was in 1983, when the 10th-best time was 2:10:53, 25th was 2:12:32, and 50th-best circa 2:14:18. Only six times were faster than 2:14:18 in 2007 and four (by caucasian U.S. runners) in 2008. In other words, there were about 10 times more elite U.S./Canadian athletes in 1983 compared with today. The homegrown elite U.S. marathon running scene is paper thin (compared with what it was), with Ryan Hall’s times deceptively masking a lack of demonstrated U.S. talent.

Britain and Ireland rather than the whole of Europe qualify as one of the big three because the plots show a distinct difference in the marathon trend of Britain and Ireland compared with continental Europe. Geography encourages this,

Britain and Ireland being islands and so detached from the mainland. In today’s integrated world, this would have less bearing, especially as Europe is becoming more unified. The fall of the Berlin Wall acted as a catalyst for Eastern Europe to develop, and the marathon statistics followed suit. Nations of mainland Europe rather than the British Isles prevented Europe’s decline from the1990s onward. Europe is the amalgamation of the best times from the Euro-nation plots and other countries (such as Romania). So we would expect it to remain high given the many cultures and clusters of consciousness as opposed to the USA being more of a unified mass. In other words, there are many parts to Europe, which spreads the risk of a loss in form. It could be argued that the East Coast and West Coast of the United States are separate, plus the southern states and Canada, the latter having its own split between Quebec and the west. This is not as severe as having various, distinct nationalities or cultures, affording strong marathon-runner nuclei to be independent.

Eastern Europe did well in the mid- to late 1980s (though only the USSR is on the graph). However, caution needs to be exercised here, since many of the Eastern European countries pre-Berlin Wall collapse had enhanced-performance programs that involved using drugs. Fortunately, such programs were not so compatible with the nature of marathon training because drugs were primarily tailored to develop muscle bulk and thus power, anaerobic rather than aerobic. We excluded from the database (used to generate the graph) the marathon performances of any drug users we could identify. In northern Europe, Scandinavia tends to mirror the big three in free fall (possibly due to a lack of statistics) from the 1990s. Germany and France are rather inconsistent, with Benoit Zwierzchiewski of France flying the flag. France attracts many good North Africans. In the Alps, Switzerland’s Viktor R6thlin excels and is vying with a brace of Ukrainians, Aleksandr Kuzin and Dmitriy Baranovskiy, to be the current top European marathon runner. These runners are ensuring Europe’s best does not decline, hovering between 2:07 and 2:08. Ukraine is part of the USSR for purposes of this analysis. For ease of classification, we use the USSR rather than just Russia. The USSR includes a vast area of Asia (although nearly all elite athletes are from the European section), the Baltic states, the Caucasus, Ukraine, and Belarus. For Russia, Aleksey Sokolov did 2:09 in 2007, and Pavel Loskutov of Estonia is at the same standard.

The table on pages 89-90 is a list of the continents’ and countries’ six-yearbest averages. It includes countries not included in the graph. It also breaks down regions graphed, like Iberia, which consists of Spain and Portugal.

The Benelux consists of the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. This group peaked in the late 1990s, with Vincent Rousseau of Belgium its leader. Only Kamiel Maase of the Netherlands has gone under 2:09 since, with Gerard Nijboer doing 2:09:01 in 1980. Mediterranean Europe surged from the 1990s. Mediterranean men are not quite the same as their more-northern counterparts.

Mediterranean men are slightly more slender and a little less muscular. The climate makes winter training around the Mediterranean easier. Carlos Lopes and Antonio Pinto of Portugal (plus Manuel Matias and Luis de Jesus), plus many Spanish runners, did much to keep Iberian marathonrunning strong. The sub-2:09 Spanish bumper crop includes Martin Fiz, Abel Anton, Antonio Pena, Jose Manuel Martinez, Francisco Javier Cortes, Jose Manuel Garcia, Fabian Roncero, Alberto Juzdado, and Jose Rios, and excludes the fastest man who took drugs. However, recently there is a downward trend. The other major Mediterranean power, Italy, is enjoying an upward surge to a plateau, in the main due to Stefano Baldini. The late 1990s into the 2000s saw Albercio Di Cecco, Giacomo Leone, Francesco Ingargiola, and Danilo Goffi all going under 2:09.

The Latin and South American trend is very similar to the Iberian one. This is not a surprise, given the intertwined history of the two groups. Vanderlei de Lima, Andre Luiz Ramos, and Luiz Antonio dos Santos, all sub-2:09, plus Ronaldo da Costa, the former world record holder at 2:06:05 in 1998, all of Brazil, are the top athletes in that group, which includes Mexico. Mexico is another strong marathon-running country whose champions are Andres Espinosa (who incidentally holds the world masters record at 2:08:46 run in 2003), Dionisio Ceron, Arturo Barrios, and Alejandro Cruz also running under 2:09. Currently, Marilson Gomes dos Santos of Brazil leads this group, a sub-2:09 man and recent winner of the ING New York City Marathon.

The Orient, led by Japan, is very consistent. Its plot roughly shows a parallel with the 10th-best average in the world. Japan has a healthy marathon-running culture. The Japanese tend to have shorter but more muscular legs and benefit froma mild climate. Japan’s best is 2:06:16 by Toshinari Takaoka in 2002. Atsushi Sato, Hiromi Taniguchi, Shigeru Aburaya, Toshinari Suwa, Tomoaki Kunichika, Takayuki Inubushi, and Atsushi Fujita have all been under 2:08 in the last 10 years, the last two names under 2:07. A minute slower in the 1980s, the Japanese revolution began with Toshihiko Seko, Takeyuki Nakayama, Koichi Morishita, and the Soh twins (Shigeru and Takeshi), while Yoshiteru Morishita ran under

2:08 a few years later. Japan has always been capable of keeping up, even during the world marathon slump of the mid-1990s. South Korea had its own success with heroes Bong-Ju Lee and Yi- Yong Kim. North Korea and China have some good runners, but like the East Germans, these nations entertain nationwide performance-enhancing drug programs. Nearly all of its men race in China, where it is easier to keep a lid on any shenanigans. The performances by Chinese athletes are included only where they run outside of China and North Korea, greatly increasing the likelihood of any cheats being caught. In that respect, when we talk about the Orient, consider that virtually all of the data used is Japanese (and South Korean). The views expressed here obviously do not represent those of the major athletic bodies like the IAAF, which would be obligated to find proof if such a statement were made.

Notice that most continents and nations are experiencing a downward trend. Yet the world trend is still upward, as proved by the black lines. Clearly, topclass marathon running is booming, but certainly not in the Western world. The shortfall in world-class marathon runners from the big three is more than made up for by the Africans. When we say “Africans,” that term pretty much excludes West Africans and African Americans. There are exceptions, such as Mwenze Kalombo from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, who has run 2:08:40. The elite marathon runners come from the high plains of East Africa and from northwest Africa. African marathon running dramatically rose to power, so much so that by the end of the 1980s, Africa was well above the other continents and largely held its place at the top in the 1990s.

In the who’s who of modern-day African marathon running, Juma Ikangaa of Tanzania broke new ground, culminating in a PB of 2:08:01. Another early go-getter was Belayneh Dinsamo of Ethiopia, who set a world record of 2:06:50 in 1988. Ahmed Salah and Djama Robleh of Djbouti, next to Ethiopia, were also outstanding. Ethiopia had Abebe Mekonnen, and South Africa sported Zithulele Singe and David Tsebe. The 2:07s and 2:08s they ran became less of a surprise when Kenya began to make its mark. In the mid-1990s, Sammy Lelei and Cosmas N’Deti were the initial fruit, both within 22 seconds of Belayneh’s world record (circa 115 meters behind). Suddenly a 2:07 time was the expected norm, which Josiah Thugwane of South Africa and the Kenyans Erick Kimaiyo, Elijah Lagat, Josephat Kiprono, Moses Tanui, Joseph Chebet, Joseph Kahugu, and Ondoro Osoro obliged, Ondoro clocking 2:06:53. This was up to 1998, by which time Khalid Khannouchi from Morocco was a 2:07 man. This North African stole East Africa’s thunder with a world record of 2:05:42 in 1999. That year, times starting with 2:06 were regularly happening, the attaining Kenyans being Moses Tanui, Josephat Kiprono, Fred Kiprop, and William Kiplagat, with Ethiopians Tesfaye Jifar and Tesfaye Tola (plus a South African with a history of taking drugs). There were new runners doing 2:07, with too many to list here. So it was a surprise in

2000 that there were no African 2:06s or below, unlike Europe and Japan. Several ran 2:07s—Abdelkader El Mouaziz, Khalid Khannouchi, and Simon Biwott of Kenya, plus Moses again.

Africa was busy engaging its overdrive to the very top of the charts and also began to dominate the rest of the rankings. In 2001, only Josephat Kiprono did a 2:06, although again there were new names doing 2:07s. The fastest was Driss El Himer, of North African derivation, running for France. In 2002, the floodgates really opened with African men posting three 2:05s and eight 2:06s. Paul Tergat of Kenya joined Khalid Khannouchi (who now had three 2:05s) at the very top just in front of new 2:06ers Daniel Njenga, Raymond Kipkoech, and Vincent Kipsos, all of Kenya; Haile Gebreselasie of Ethiopia and Abdelkader el Mouaziz (two 2:06s) and Simon Biwot and Paul Tergat (added a 2:06 to his 2:05), all three mentioned previously. Ian Syster kept South Africa up with a 2:07:06. In 2003, a repeat performance with the special 2:04 hall of fame opened. Sammy Korir of Kenya (who did 2:08:02 in 1997) and Paul Tergat pushed each other to a world record of 2:04:55/6 with Tergat getting the record at 2:04:55.Evans Rutto of Kenya ducked under 2:06, while Kenyans Titus Munji, Michael Rotich, Felix Limo, William Kipsang, and Wilson Onsare were under 2:07. There were 16 legal 2:07s, with 11 being by Africans. Of the 2:06s in 2004, Robert Cheboror and Joseph Riri, both from Kenya, were new names. In 2005, only one 2:06 time

was posted, which was Haile’s, and the world-best six-year average was finally made up exclusively of African times. In 2006 Haile topped out again, this time with a 2:05. Also, 2006 saw seven legal 2:06s, all African, and 12 2:07s, 10 by Africans. Paul Kirui and Charles Kibiwott were the new Kenyans on the block, and Hendrick Ramaala of South Africa also did a 2:06. The next year, 2007, was even better with 20 2:07s, one being Viktor R6thlin. The new 2:06ers were Emmanuel Mutai, Sammy Wanjiru, Richard Limo, and Abel Kirui, all from Kenya, plus Deriba Merga Ejigu of Ethiopia, while his countryman Haile improved again and ran a world record of 2:04:26. In 2008, Haile ran another world record with a 2:03:59. Haile also did a 2:04:53 in 2008! The bar was raised in elite depth, too, with five 2:05s: Martin Lel, Sammy Wanjiru, James Kwambai, and William Kipsang, all of Kenya, plus Abderrahim Goumri of Morocco. There were 2:06s a-plenty with eight, Mutai, the American Hall, Cheruiyot, Wanjiru, Ejigu, Kebede, Kimeli (Arusai), and Rono, and 18 2:07s, one being Viktor Rothlin.

Earlier we said the 10th-best plot was healthy but that without Haile there could be stalling. With so much talent around, is anyone currently likely to catch Haile soon? Back in 2007, Sammy Wanjiru did a 2:06:39. What was extraordinary is that this was just after his 21st birthday. The author’s own very accurate age-grade graph shows that an improvement of 1.7 percent from age 21 for marathon men to their peak at age 28 to 30 is to be expected. This translates to Sammy’s running 2:04:32 were he to remain as relatively fast as he is at age 21. The following year, Sammy did 2:05:24 at age 21 1/2. Applying a 1.4 percent rise to account for not running at the peak age shows that a 2:03:50 is possible, just faster than Haile’s world record. Clearly, Sammy Wanjiru is not just one of the Kenyan pack, but then he is an Olympic champion. In that sweltering race, he ran 2:06:32. The author’s own marathon-running temperature analysis suggests that a minimum of 1.3 percent be taken off for the heat, and accounting for the humidity, this rises to 2 percent. Include an additional 1 percent for not being at his peak, and Sammy’s 2:06:32 can be reduced by 3 percent, which equals 2:02:51! For Haile, regarding age the opposite can be applied in that he is older than the marathon peak for age. In 2008, at age 35, Haile set a world record of 2:03:59. An age-grade graph suggests that he could have done a minute faster (a generous estimate) were he peaking at the ideal age, making a projected best of 2:02:59, which neatly ties in with Sammy’s projection. Thus we conclude that a sub-2:03 is possible, a matter of when rather than if. If not with Sammy, then smart money also bets on Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia. Tsegay ran 2:06:40 in 2008 at age 21 1/4, being at the same standard for his age as Sammy. Or maybe Kenenisa Bekele (10,000-meter world record holder) of Ethiopia or Patrick Makau of Kenya (a super young halfmarathoner) will emulate Haile and set new records? With these young and super runners, the marathon stock is well placed to remain highly competitive with the potential to improve the world record.

Haile (and/or Tsegay) versus Sammy (and/or Patrick) parallels the Ethiopia versus Kenya battle for the top marathon nation. Morocco is the third candidate, represented at the very top by Goumri and Jaouad Gharib. There are other African parties involved, including Eritrea, which has Yonas Kifle in the 2:07 club, and Hendrick Ramaala from South Africa. In 2008, East Africa (as opposed to including the north) claimed the world-best six-year average plot as its own. Currently, Kenya is the epicenter of elite marathon running. Kenyan athletes accounted for over 69 percent of the top 100 marathon times in 2008. An additional 19 percent are from other African nations, and the rest of the world accounted for 12 percent. The Kenyan system is obviously working. The depth is staggering. Ethiopia is arguably the second-most-prolific marathon-running nation at this time, and Japan remains consistent in third.

Eo * *

It is prudent to consider whether Africans are naturally more suited to the marathon since their current performances are so much better than the rest of the world. Humans come in a diverse range of body types, so difference is assured. Caucasian runners have not-so-efficient wider hips and broader shoulders. The Orientals, as we noted, have shorter-striding but more-muscular legs. The typical African elite marathoner is a string bean with a light frame, basically lungs on legs. Stereotypically, it would appear that African genetics are ideal, but there are always exceptions to the rule: Paula Radcliffe. In that respect, expect the unexpected, but not as a generalization applied to whole nations.

Earlier we mentioned weather. As the weather gets hotter, human beings become ganglier, so Mediterranean runners have a slight advantage over their Norse counterparts, just as East Africans could have a very small advantage over North Africans. East Africa may have an advantage over North Africa owing to its higher elevation. The cold statistics of the world marathon list imply that both temperature and altitude make a difference.

Body type and temperature aside, athletes prove that altitude is a major factor in marathon running performance—that is, to train high and race low. East Africa has plains on a 4,000- to 5,000-foot-high continental plate. Haile trains in the Ethiopian highlands sometimes beyond 10,000 feet! Training at this altitude gives a significant advantage. The author’s studies indicate that fully acclimatized training at 6,000 to 7,000 feet improves speed by about 2 percent, circa 2 1/2 minutes for the marathon.

Forget the plains; Sammy ought to train on Mount Kenya!

In Europe, historically, Spain has the most sub-2:08 men, has a plateau of 2,000 to 3,500 feet, and is a hot European country. This altitude probably improves training conditions, reducing times by an estimated 0.3 percent, a 22-second reduction. We can speculate that an athlete who trains at 6,000 to 7,000 feet would do a 2:04:30 marathon, while an athlete who trains at sea level would need an extra

2 1/2 minutes, running 2:07:00—which is probably up to two minutes too fast for a non-altitude-trained time, as statistics show. In that respect, the temperature could play a part in reducing times. Heat management is key when running. We would expect Africans to have an advantage here, given their acclimatization to their hot climate. They are heat conditioned, as are Mediterraneans. To conclude, heat and especially altitude do make a positive difference, which may account for all of the difference, although in practice genetics have an influence too.

Searching for other advantages, the African populace largely travels on foot, and virtually everyone is slim. Fitness is a necessity given the farming selfsufficiency ethic. These ingredients help, but there is something else fuelling raw talent. It is within the psychic rhythm of the nation. There is a hunger and desire to express what comes naturally. And in the capacity of exercise, Africa is free to tun. In truth, Africans (especially the tribes of the Rift Valley) have always had good runners. They simply had to wait for the opportunity to expand that avenue more and to exhibit it for the world by competing in international meets. Now it is much more likely that the ordinary African man on the street has a chance to improve his running. Whereas in the 1980s, runners had to be in the armed forces or born of royalty, today the Kenyan system has running scouts and numerous running camps for elite athletes. So the pool of talent readily mixes together, creating high-quality competition.

This increases motivation to train and helps to raise standards. The Kenyan marathon-man production line works. It is churning out an army of superb athletes who are flooding the long-distance scene. However, the Kenyan system is not without problems. The country is going through political turmoil. Food, medical care, and other basics for living are problems in many regions. This is typical throughout the continent; Africans are not always free to run. In other words, forces greater than running itself dictate the trends.

Conversely, Westerners are free to run. However, the materialistic trappings that Westernism brings often serve to detract from a healthy nation and provide so many leisure options that running is somewhat sidelined. Triathlon, cycling, skiing, and swimming (plus even soccer) provide many of the outlets to satisfy Europe’s drive for fitness while basketball, baseball, and American football would be more valid in the United States. Specifically, the big three excel in the triathlon, as if the US/AUS/NZ/UK elite-exercising psyche has found a new outlet for its pent-up physical energies.

More recently, many top Africans have followed the scent of prize money (becoming citizens of Persian Gulf oil-producing countries), competing in U.S. marathons as well as in the European biggies. Winning even a medium-sized U.S. or European marathon can bring a lifetime’s wages back home for an African athlete. This increasingly applies to your local marathon. If you think you have a chance of winning something worth winning this year, look again as you warm

up because Benson “bless him” Chipwamba-selassie is stealthily stretching his quads. Top marathon runners typically have a dozen opportunities to run 100 percent. Given the huge difference such money ordinarily makes to an African family compared with what a westerner would do with the loot, let us not begrudge Africans having these paydays.

Cells of East and North Africans are cropping up in Europe and the U.S., the elevated Rockies being a favorite locale. Here we have the recipe for a “marathon super being,” using the best facilities in a career dedicated to training and racing. Much of the U.S. marathon-running elite is imported from Africa (excluding Ryan Hall, homegrown from seed), Khalid Khannouchi being an example. If this were scaled up, skimming off the cream of African athletes, Kenyan dominance could be shifted to the U.S.

Wherever the Africans reside, it is very much the case for the rest of the world to work hard if they wish to catch up with the Africans. If that means sleeping in hypoxic tents, stuffing yourself with vitamin pills, and training on the Tibetan Plateau, I’m sure a crop of diehards will oblige. Without altitude training, specialist care and diet, or close competition (in other words, simply high-quality sea-level training as in the good old days of the 1970s and early 1980s), consider about 2:09 as the “natural” yearly marathon world-best time. The graph suggests that gets you to be about the 40th-fastest marathon runner in the world today. This raises the question of whether improvements faster than this are actually artificial. Man is finding “supernatural” ways to push his limits, enduring greater physical stress. This progress is predominantly African led, and the trend looks set to continue for many years.

Main sources for statistics: ARRS & IAAF, from which another database was compiled. PeterHarvey! @btinternet.com

National/World Marathon List: Six-year average (race adjusted)

World-best (all African) 2:05:18.5 2008 East Africa 2:05:18.5 2008 Kenya 2:06:05 2008 Ethiopia 2:06:08 2008 North Africa (all Moroccan) 2:06:38 2002 World top 10 2:07:09 2008 Europe 2:07:11 2003 Orient (all Japanese) 2:07:14 2004 Iberia 2:07:30 2002 Spain 2:07:43 2003 Italy 2:07:53 2006 Southern Africa (all RSA) 2:07:58 2007