Struggling to figure out what pace you should train or race at? You’re not alone.
In Episode 64 of the Marathon Handbook Podcast, co-hosts Michael Doyle, Coach Katelyn Tocci, and Alex Cyr unpack one of the most misunderstood aspects of running performance: how to identify your real training and race pace without relying on gut instinct or guesswork.
We dive deep into pacing traps, offer real-world tools to get it right, and share personal confessions of times we got it completely wrong.
You can watch a video version of the episode above, or via our YouTube channel (subscribe here), or on Spotify, which now supports video podcasts. You can listen to the episode in the embedded player below, or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
🧠 The Problem: Most Runners Guess Their Pace
Whether you’re chasing a sub-4 marathon or just trying to improve your 5K time, pace selection matters — a lot. But most runners rely on instinct, outdated PRs, or the seductive power of round numbers to guide their training and racing goals.
This often leads to burnout, injuries, and disappointing race results.
🚨 The Six “Pace Trap” Archetypes
Michael, Alex, and Katelyn introduce six familiar pacing personas — archetypes that many runners fall into at some point:
- The Marathon Mathematician Sets an arbitrary time goal (“sub-4 or bust”) and reverse-engineers training to match… regardless of current fitness.
- The Legacy PR Guy Trains like it’s still 2015, clinging to old PRs instead of present reality.
- The Copycat Tries to match a faster runner’s paces, believing that speed by osmosis is a training plan.
- The Tempo Merchant Turns every run into a hard-but-not-quite-hard gray zone slog. Fitness stagnation, meet overtraining.
- The Round Number Chaser Obsesses over “sexy” benchmarks like sub-3:00 or sub-20, ignoring data that says otherwise — or even holds themselves back when they could go faster.
- The Negative Split Fantasist Starts too slow planning to “close hard,” but lacks the fitness (or race-day magic) to actually pull it off.
👉 Have you been one of these runners? We all have.
🔧 The Solution: Tools That Work
The team then pivots to practical tools and strategies you can use to figure out the right paces for your current fitness, including:
🧪 1. Short Time Trials
Run an all-out 3K or 5K effort, ideally on a track or verified course. Use the result to calculate predicted race paces and training zones.
📊 2. Use Reputable Calculators
Two standouts:
Each provides training paces across energy zones (easy, tempo, threshold, VO2max) and race predictions based on a recent effort.
🏁 3. Race Before the Race
Use low-stakes tune-up races to recalibrate. Recent race results are gold when it comes to setting goal paces.
⚖️ 4. RPE (Rate of Perceived Exertion)
Not everything should be data-driven. Use effort-based feedback — especially for easy runs and recovery days — to stay healthy and avoid overtraining.
📉 Avoiding the Pace Calculator Trap
Both VDOT and McMillan calculators can be overly optimistic, especially for long distances extrapolated from short time trials. The team recommends:
- Don’t race the calculator — adjust based on how workouts feel.
- Use the conservative end of the prediction scale early in training blocks.
- Don’t “shop” between calculators to find the fastest numbers. Pick one, be honest, adjust as you go.
📌 Key Takeaways
✅ Don’t set your goal pace based on vibes or vanity — let fitness guide you.
✅ Pace should evolve through the season, not stay fixed.
✅ Be honest. Be patient. The right pace leads to the right result.
▶️ Watch or Listen to the Full Episode
📺 YouTube: Find Your TRUE Race Pace (No More Guesswork!)
🎧 Podcast: Available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all major platforms.
