2024 was a big one for the running world, no doubt. From world records to shoe innovation to wild running trends and everything in between, this year brought some big changes to the sport. But we think 2025 could bring even better things.
We asked all the staff members of Marathon Handbook to give us their bold predictions for 2025. Now, we gave our staff pretty free range, so these predictions cover anything and everything from the running world.
Here are our staff’s big thoughts for the running world next year.
Katelyn’s 2025 Prediction: Custom-Fit Running Shoes for Recreational Runners
Katelyn Tocci is our managing editor, head coach, and member of our elite podcasting squad.
“In 2025, the trend toward personalized running shoes will take center stage as recreational runners seek gear that meets their specific needs. No longer reserved for elites, custom-fit footwear will become a priority for runners of all levels, driven by the desire for better comfort, performance, and injury prevention. This shift reflects the broader demand for personalization across the fitness world, and brands are rising to the occasion with groundbreaking innovations.
NNormal, co-founded by trail running legend Kilian Jornet, is leading the charge with shoes that allow runners to choose and switch out insoles and midsoles. Tailored to match terrain, body type, and workout intensity, these designs offer a level of customization for athletes that we have not seen before.
On is also advancing this trend with its robot-crafted shoes. The On Cloudboom Strike LS is created using a cutting-edge process called LightSpray technology, involving a robotic arm spraying a continuous filament of thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) directly onto a foot form, creating a seamless and ultra-lightweight upper. This innovative approach allows for rapid production and personalization, redefining performance footwear.
As the running community continues to value personalization, expect more major brands to jump into the space, introducing their own innovations in tailored footwear. By the end of 2025, custom-fit running shoes will likely become a standard for athletes, reshaping how we think about the perfect pair of running shoes.”
Alex’s 2025 Prediction: The year of the Start-Up Running Event
Alex Cyr is our main shoe editor, leads our YouTube channel, and is a competitive runner based in Toronto.
“Running exploded in 2024: new runners joined the sport in droves, major marathons are setting attendance records, and Strava subscriptions are through the roof. The Abbott World Marathon Majors even added a seventh race to their roster, the Sydney Marathon, to meet the demand. But one extra World Major is not enough to offset the influx of new racers: the NYC marathon is turning down more than 50,000 people per year, for crying out loud!
Seeing an opportunity, business people will toss on their race director hats, and organize new, large-scale road races to compete for runners’s interest, time, and money. Already, U.S-based running coach Ben Rosario said he will bring back The Marathon Project: a fast, flat marathon he first co-organized in 2020 in Arizona, which back then gave runners a rare, pandemic year race.
There will be more of that this year. Like during the pandemic, when people were starving for races, an appetite for more running events will create new kinds of showdowns: track time trials, Ekiden-style relays, and, like we’re already seeing at the Valencia marathon, flat and competitive races with huge cash incentives. Running is now popular and cool, which means that it’s marketable: that’s good news for athletes trying to run fast, runners seeking a thrill, and, well, running media like us!”
Amby’s 2025 Prediction: Western States Will Be The Race Of The Year
Amby Burfoot is our editor-at-large, 1968 Boston marathon winner, and author of the Run Long, Run Healthy Newsletter.
“Next summer’s Western States 100 will be one of the year’s most anticipated and covered running events. It has the potential to pit the legendary Kilian Jornet against the legendary Jim Walmsley against the … who the hell is David Roche?
Jornet is not yet entered. He needs a “golden ticket” to qualify for Western States, and has entered the Chianti by UTMB 120K race in France in late March, 2025. The Chianti event could provide the golden ticket he needs.
Jornet, now 36, last appeared at Western States in 2011, when he won. The prior year, he finished third. He was born in Spain, but now lives and trains in Norway. He is best known for his four victories in the Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc. In 2022, he launched his own shoe brand, NNormal.
Walmsley, 35 next summer, has won Western States four times (including last year), and also won the 2023 Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc—the first American to do so. He lived for many years in Flagstaff, Ariz., before moving to France in 2022.
David Roche, who has a law degree from Duke, co-hosts a popular running podcast with his wife Megan, an M.D. and PhD. Their pod is called Some Work, All Play, or SWAP. It includes smutty language, sexy talk, and science chats about endurance performance. The Roche’s live in Boulder, Colo.
Both David and Megan are talented trail runners who coach other ultra trail runners. Last summer, David stepped up to 100 miles for the first time, and set a course record at Leadville. He followed that with a win in the Javelina 100, despite temps in the mid-90s. The Javelina victory earned David a “golden ticket” into Western States, 2025, which will mark his first appearance in the most-famous of 100-mile trail races.
Roche believes he can ‘slurp’ drinks and gels faster and in greater volume than other ultra runners, and promises that he will ‘science the hell’ out of his approach to the Western States 100. He will turn 37 a week before Western States.”
Jessy’s 2025 Prediction: Sustainable Materials For Shoes Are In
Jessy Carveth is our news editor, former collegiate runner and now a professional cyclist based out of Girona, Spain.
In 2025, we’re going to see a major shift in the running shoe world as brands double down on eco-friendly materials. I’m talking legit, high-performance shoes made from recycled, biodegradable, or even bio-engineered materials.
Here’s the deal: consumers are getting louder about wanting sustainable options, and big brands are finally listening. Companies like Asics, Adidas and Nike have already dabbled in recycled plastics and plant-based foams, but 2025 is shaping up to be the year when this goes mainstream. Think midsoles crafted from renewed resources or outsoles that biodegrade without leaving behind toxic microplastics. Plus, more brands will hop on the closed-loop recycling train, where you can return your worn-out shoes to be broken down and reused in new products.
And don’t worry about sacrificing performance for the planet. I think the industry will hit the sweet spot where eco-friendly doesn’t mean eco-ugly. These shoes will still be responsive, lightweight, and durable enough to tackle everything from marathon training to gnarly trails.
Sustainability is no longer just a “nice-to-have” feature; it’s becoming a non-negotiable. Runners want to feel good about what’s on their feet—not just because they shave seconds off their mile splits, but because they’re leaving a smaller footprint (pun intended) on the planet.”
Brady’s 2025 Prediction: Continuous Glucose Monitors Become As Common As An HR Monitor
Brady Holmer is a sub 2:30 marathon runner, holds an MSc in Human Performance, and writes about the intersection of science, running, and health.
“The use of continuous glucose monitors and continuous lactate monitors will make their way into the elite (and sub-elite/amateur) running ranks.
Everyone’s got a wearable now, and soon, everyone who wants one will have access to a device that constantly monitors their continuous blood glucose. As runners and coaches start to embrace this technology, they’ll learn how to use it for personalizing fueling during training and racing, leading to better performance and improved recovery.
Once continuous lactate monitors become widely available in 2025, heart rate training will go by the wayside and will be replaced by training based on blood lactate levels.”
Kosuke’s 2025 Prediction: The men’s 800m WR shall fall in 2025
Kosuke Maeda is the MH team’s videographer and editor, and has been known to run a fast lap (or two) on the track. Kosuke currently trains to keep up with the athletes he films”
“One record that has seemingly been untouchable is the men’s 800m, set by David Rudisha of Kenya at the 2012 Olympic finals. Standing at 1:40.91, the closest anyone has come to challenging the record was nearly a full second behind – in elite 800m terms, that is light years.
And then 2024 happened.
In June, Kenyan athlete Emmanuel Wanyonyi created a buzz around the world by running 1:41.70 at his National Trials, and over the summer months, the 20-year-old had lowered his time to 1:41.11 – now tied for the second-fastest man of all time.
Strikingly, the 4th-, 5th-, 6th-, and 7th-fastest men of all time had also come from this season. A mind-blowing eleven of the 20 all-time performances were run in 2024!
Notably, Rudisha was just 21-years-old when he set his first world record in 2010, which sounds theoretically perfect for Wanyonyi to take down the record in 2025. However, with the explosion of 800m performances this past season, it shouldn’t be a surprise when several athletes challenge the record.
By the end of the 2025 season, expect the Men’s 800m World Record to change hands.”
Thomas’ 2025 prediction: Everyday Runners Will Reject Optimization And Choose Running For Fun In 2025
Thomas Watson founded Marathon Handbook; he used to run a lot of ultras, now he has 3 kids. He’s deep in the ‘recreational’ camp right now, and occasionally makes mumbles about getting back into long distance running.
“It feels like innovation has been infiltrating many aspects of the running world in recent years.
Whether it’s shoe companies racing to develop the latest carbon plate and springy foam to shave seconds of your race time, AI-powered coaching apps that push you hard on each run, or devices that measure and score your sleep quality . . . runners have never had more gizmos to help them track and optimize their performance.
And while I’m often one of the first to tinker and test these new trinkets, I do sense a growing amount of optimization fatigue from runners that I think will become more pronounced in 2025.
You see, for many runners, running isn’t all about optimizing your next run.
In fact, maybe it’s the opposite.
It’s an outlet. It’s the thing they do for themselves; to stay fit and feel good – and maybe they don’t need the pressure of having an AI coach tell them that they underperformed on their last run.
Or an app telling them they could’ve slept better last night (ironically, worrying about sleep tracking scores has been shown to lead to insomnia).
There’s been a ‘run for fun‘ trend playing out since the pandemic, with the rise of casual run clubs and the gradually dropping average marathon time as more runners – especially young runners – take on the marathon as a newbie runner, simply to ‘have a go’. I think we’ll see much more of this movement in 2025.
While I expect AI coaching apps to remain popular, I think we’ll see a renaissance of runners hiring good old-fashioned human-run coaches that provide support and connection in a way that ChatGPT can’t.”
Michael’s 2025 Prediction: no one runs a sub-two hour marathon
Michael Doyle is Marathon Handbook’s editor-in-chief. Michael is an investigative journalist and editor based in Toronto. With a long career in running journalism, Michael leads up the Marathon Handbook podcast team.
Just a few short years ago, the easy prediction would have been that by 2025 multiple marathoners would have broken the two hour barrier in an officially sanctioned race. But with the loss of Kelvin Kiptum and the decline of Eliud Kipchoge and Kenenisa Bekele (who is number three all-time), it seems that there is now a vacuum at the absolute apex of marathon running. This is a risky prediction, as there are upwards of a dozen men competing right now who have run in the 2:02-2:03 range, but my prediction is that none of them will break two in the next 12 months.
It’s true that 2025 is a non-Olympic year, although, the World Athletics Championships in Tokyo will draw in some of these super-fast runners to represent their country. But more importantly, there are just six reasonable opportunities to legitimately attack a sub-two hour marathon attempt: The Tokyo Marathon (March), London (April), Rotterdam (April), Berlin (September), Chicago (October), and Valencia (December). Only London, Berlin, Chicago, Valencia will spend the money needed though to set up the field and pacers required to make this happen.
There are a few good young marathoners and half marathoners coming up and one could make a big jump. But no one in their prime is really even close at the moment. (It’s worth taking a look at the all-time marathon list here.) The top three are either past their prime or, sadly, deceased. Ethiopia’s Sisay Lemma is the only other runner who has dipped under 2:02, at fourth all-time. And he’s 34. Kenya’s Sebastian Sawe, Deresa Geleta and John Korir are probably the next best candidates, but that’s still a two-to-three minute jump for them to get into true two-hour range.
Also worth looking at the half-marathon all-time list. There are some promising candidates there in Kejelca (the world record holder at the distance), Jacob Kiplimo, and Selemon Barega, but none has attempted a marathon yet, and there’s no clear indication that they could smoke the distance. History is filled with many a fast distance runner who struggled after 30K in the marathon.
Even if London, Berlin, Chicago or Valencia were to spend to set up the race, getting pacers to run sub-60 minute pace for half is tough enough, as that’s a world class performance itself. We’ve seen the need for pacing all the way to the finish. Ruth Cheptngetich set the women’s marathon world record in Chicago with two pacers leading her right into the finishing chute, and my colleague Jessy Carveth astutely argued that this no doubt helped deliver such an astonishing result. And, of course, in 2019 Eliud Kipchoge smashed the two-hour barrier in a test event with a famed phalanx of pacers subbing in and out for the entirety of the run in order to completely shield him from the wind and help him keep perfect pace.
A legitimate attempt at running sub-two at a sanctioned event would require multiple runners capable of holding to that pace for nearly the entire race, which would be extremely challenging to orchestrate. It took Nike and then INEOS extraordinary amounts of money and a pair of highly specialized events to get Kipchoge under that time. We’re just not seeing that level of investment in this current crop of athletes, so I doubt it will happen in 2025.
Unless, of course, someone just does something unbelievable on their own.
Michael’s 2025 Predictions
Friend of Marathon Handbook, Michael Mazzara of Rogue Expeditions, jumped in with his predictions.
Longevity, longevity, longevity
I expected it last year but suspect this year is more likely. We saw “slow running” peak at the beginning of the year but the rise in the interest of longevity through lifestyle adaptations has grown in popularity from people like Brian Johnson and Dr. Peter Attia. Both stress the importance of VO2 Max – improved through both extended sessions of Zone 2 cardio as well as max heart rate training. We’ll see content creators focus on the intersection of running and lifespan.
Dolomites time to shine
While we’re still seeing the growth of the interest in Mont Blanc, it will become overcrowded to runners and trekkers through the summer. The Dolomites, while popular, will see a surge this year.
Race demand increases for the top races
We’re seeing the result of “network effects” when it comes to race participation. When one person in a running club submits a ballot for the London Marathon, so too do a few others in the club. Small spheres of influence are magnified as it relates to applications for the top 5-10% of races worldwide. We’ll see growth in Abbott ballots but also races like Indianapolis Monumental, Dallas, Houston, CIM, Boulderthon and other up and coming races.
The rise of the sub-ultra trail race
This is well reported already. Simply – trail running has somewhat been held back by its conflation with ultra distances. New series like Cirque are surfacing the desire to participate in trail races without ultra distances.
