Tomorrow, June 26, could be a day for the history books as Faith Kipyegon will attempt to become the first woman to break the 4-minute barrier in the mile.
We asked the staff members of Marathon Handbook to share their bold predictions for Nike’s Breaking4 event with Kipyegon.
Here are our staff’s big thoughts for one of the biggest events in the running world tomorrow.
Katelyn’s Prediction: 3:59.90
Katelyn Tocci is our managing editor, head coach, and member of our elite podcasting squad.
“Everyone keeps pointing to Faith Kipyegon’s historic 4:07.64 mile as the limit of what’s possible, or at least what’s probable. But what many are forgetting is that this isn’t a record attempt under standard racing conditions. This is a fully engineered moment choreographed by Nike down to the last detail.
Kipyegon already proved she can defy conventional progressions by taking nearly five seconds off the previous world record in one shot without the optimized environment she’ll have at Breaking4. That wasn’t a fluke; it was a glimpse of her true potential when the stars align.
Now, Nike is doing everything it can to force those stars into perfect position: she’ll have precise pacing, race on a wind-sheltered track at Paris’s Stade Charléty under ideal temperature and humidity conditions, wear super shoes that enhance energy return with up to a 30% weight reduction, and be suited in a custom aerodynamic speed suit to reduce drag.
Add to that a perfectly orchestrated pacing formation to reduce air resistance, a fine-tuned fueling routine, and the psychological edge of a meticulously practiced performance.
All of these variables have been carefully calibrated to eliminate inefficiencies. None of this would be possible in a traditional race setting.
On top of that, Faith’s mindset is electric. Her belief in herself is striking, and that confidence, combined with physical readiness, can be the final edge.
I’m all in with her. Let’s make history and show women everywhere that nothing is out of reach.”
Michael’s 2025 Prediction: 3:59.87
Michael Doyle is Marathon Handbook’s editor-in-chief. Michael is an investigative journalist and editor based in Toronto. With a long career in running journalism, Michael leads up the Marathon Handbook podcast team.
I think this is going to be close. Like, diving-across-the-finish-line close.
Alex Cyr floated a conspiracy theory in our preview podcast that Kipyegon has actually already run sub-4 in secret at the Nike HQ.
And while I think this might be a touch paranoid, I do think Nike only would have decided to go all in with Breaking4 (and the millions of dollars it surely costs) if they felt she was already really close.
But Nike likes to take calculated risks and is great at manifesting high drama.
Plus, recent scientific analysis suggests the drafting advantage alone will make it feel like running down a steep hill. I think she just gets under the four-minute barrier.
Alex’s 2025 Prediction: 4:01:25
Alex Cyr is our main shoe editor, leads our YouTube channel, and is a competitive runner based in Toronto.
“Hey! Michael, you stole my conspiracy theory. Fair enough, as I stole it from someone else. And you know what they say about fast-spreading rumours: they are ALWAYS true.
When Nike held Breaking2 in 2017, they must have known something we didn’t: that at least one athlete on their roster was capable of breaking the then-unthinkable two-hour barrier in the marathon.
The same is probably true of Breaking4; as Nike wouldn’t set their athlete up to fail. But nothing in sports is ever guaranteed: after all, Eliud Kipchoge missed the two-hour mark by mere seconds at Breaking2. I’m sure that Kipyegon can break the four-minute mile on the best of days. But how often do we really ever have one of those?”
Jessy’s 2025 Prediction: Sustainable Materials For Shoes Are In
Jessy Carveth is our news editor, a former collegiate runner, and now a professional cyclist based out of Ghent, Belgium.
“I think it’s going to be close, but not close enough. While Nike has been orchestrating everything to make this moment perfect, that’s what it has to be… perfect, and I just don’t think that’s realistic for one big reason.
There is a lot of room for error, and I think the biggest place for “error” here is going to be the weather, which, of course, is out of everyone’s control.
The temp at the time of the attempt is 26 degrees with 51% humidity, with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which I would call far from ideal.
The stadium is open, and so Kipyegon will be at the will of the weather. Humidity and heat have significant impacts on performance, and when you’re trying to break new limits, this is one thing that should have been considered before what kind of tech suit she is wearing.
The jump from 4:07 to sub 4:00 just seems too big with too many things that need to be just right for this to happen, and I don’t think the weather is exactly in her favour.”
Thomas’ 2025 prediction: 4:10:01
Thomas Watson founded Marathon Handbook; he used to run a lot of ultras, now he has 3 kids. He’s deep in the ‘recreational’ camp right now, and occasionally makes mumbles about getting back into long distance running.
“I want to believe that a sub 4-minute mile is going to fall on Thursday. I really want to see it happen. But I just don’t think Faith has the numbers on her side.
Everyone is speculating about how Faith could possibly take just over 7.64 seconds off her previous mile record; drafting, shoes, speed suits. But what they’re forgetting is that Faith has already taken 4.6 seconds off the previous women’s mile WR back in 2023 when she ran 4:07:64, beating the previous time set by Sifan Hassan in 2019 when she ran 4:12:33.
Looking at the progression of women’s mile times over the years, like most records, it’s been incremental – shaving a second or two off every few years. And no other woman has even come close to Kipyegon’s existing record. Faith herself doesn’t have another mile time that comes close, as far as I can see.
My take: the big leap everyone is looking for – the gamechanging moonshot that resets what’s possible – already happened in 2023, when Kipyegon cut nearly 5 seconds off the previous record. On that day she added a huge outlier to the data set: to expect not just a repeat, but a further – and even bigger leap – is ambitious at best.
But then, maybe…”
