Nike Stock Hit a 12-Year Low. Nike Running Has Grown for Five Straight Quarters.

Nike grew 35.4 percent in the American run specialty channel over the most recently measured 12 months, more than any other brand in it, while Brooks, Hoka, On, New Balance and Asics all shrank. Nike shares closed at $39.09 on Monday, their lowest in 12 years. The two facts sit together without contradiction. The stock is pricing China, Converse and Nike’s own stores, none of which is a running business.

The channel figures come from Karnan Associates and Circana, presented at The Running Event in December and reported by SGB Media. They cover the 12 months through September 2025, the last complete picture of the channel rather than a current one. Over that period run specialty grew 3.1 percent in dollars, against 9 percent for the running shoe market across all channels. Nike moved up to eighth from ninth. On fell 19.7 percent to sixth, Brooks fell 6.8 percent while holding first, and Hoka fell 7.4 percent in second.

Monday’s close is about 78 percent below the record Nike set in November 2021, according to Yahoo Finance. The stock hit an 11-year low in April and slid to $40 at the start of July.

What the Stock Is Actually Pricing

China is the largest piece. Greater China revenue for fiscal 2026, which ended May 31, was $5.85 billion, down 11 percent, and down 13 percent excluding currency effects. Regional earnings before interest and taxes fell 20 percent to $1.28 billion. Chief financial officer Matt Friend told analysts on June 30 that “we do expect that the revenue trends in Greater China over the near term will be in line with our recent performance.” JPMorgan’s Matthew Boss cut the stock to underweight on Aug. 4 and lowered his price target to $40 from $47, estimating that Nike’s reset of its Chinese online marketplace from January 2027 costs more than $1 billion a year in revenue, roughly a fifth of the region. Boss wrote that “Win Now” decisions “will linger and impact NKE’s P&L in 2H27 and into FY28.”

The second is the business Nike built to replace the shoe wall. Nike Direct revenue fell 6 percent for the year to $17.7 billion, and 7 percent in the fourth quarter, with digital down 12 percent and Nike-owned stores down 7 percent. Wholesale, the channel Nike spent years walking away from, grew 6 percent to $27.5 billion. Converse fell 31 percent to $1.2 billion. Michael Binetti of Evercore ISI, in a note quoted by Yahoo Finance, wrote that there are “no hints yet that revenues can turn positive in the foreseeable future” and no clear reason “to expand the P/E [ratio] from here (from 22x FY27 consensus EPS).”

The Part of Nike That Is Growing

On the same call, chief executive Elliott Hill said the company had “now delivered 5 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in NIKE Running,” that “over that period, we’ve added roughly $1 billion to our Running business,” and that in Western Europe and North America it “gained 5 points of running market share in statement footwear, more than any other top 5 brand.” Statement footwear is Nike’s own term, and the share figure is a company claim rather than an audited one. Hill said running grew mid-single digits even in Greater China.

That billion needs context. It is about a third of On’s entire guided year, CHF 3.47 billion to CHF 3.56 billion, and On is growing above 20 percent in constant currency. Hoka’s fiscal 2026 was $2.587 billion, up 15.9 percent. Nike’s whole year was $46.4 billion, flat. Circana reported on Monday that running shoes rose 13 percent in dollars and units in the first half of 2026, against 1 percent for U.S. footwear overall, demand visible in this fall’s crowded super shoe calendar.

The evidence does not all run one way. YipitData’s transaction panel found Nike losing footwear share in stores and online across 2025, the gains going to Hoka, On, New Balance and Adidas. Brooks said on Aug. 12 that it had held the No. 1 position in U.S. specialty retail for a sixth straight month, on 14 percent revenue growth. Neither cancels the specialty numbers: Nike is climbing fastest from eighth place in a small channel while still losing the far larger all-footwear market, and it lost both the marathon and the mile world records last season.

Where the Next Dollar Goes

Friend guided demand creation spending up high single digits “as we invest into the World Cup,” football money rather than running money. The running-side spend is participation: the After Dark Tour, which drew 50,000 runners last year, a third of them first-timers, reaches seven cities this fall. Nike’s contract with USA Track and Field, reported at about $500 million when it was extended in 2014, runs through 2040, well past any timeline Wall Street is modeling. The China marketplace reset lands in January 2027. Boss’s price target runs to December 2027.